Pronóstico: Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump is currently serving his second term as President of the United States, and the crowd-implied probability that he will resign or be removed before 30 June 2026 sits at zero per cent on Polymarket. This contract, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a market view that no permanent cessation of his presidency is anticipated within the settlement window. The on-chain mechanics treat any announcement of resignation or removal as an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the effect takes place, yet traders are pricing in absolute continuity of his office.

Historically, permanent removal from the US presidency has occurred only once, when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid impeachment, while no president has ever been convicted and removed by the Senate despite multiple impeachment efforts against Trump in his first term [2]. The constitutional thresholds are steep: a simple majority in the House for impeachment and a two-thirds majority in the Senate for removal, a barrier that has prevented removal even in cases of significant political crisis. Current congressional majorities, if Republicans retain control, would render impeachment proceedings effectively inert, mirroring scenarios where party alignment shields the president from removal [4].

Traders should monitor the schedule for Supreme Court emergency applications, as the court has already received 37 such filings related to the second Trump administration by mid-June 2026, with two still pending [8]. Any sudden announcement regarding the 25th Amendment, particularly Section 4 which allows removal if the president is unable to discharge powers, would trigger immediate market resolution, though temporary invocations do not qualify [6]. Recent political commentary suggests rising speculation about Trump’s capacity, yet no verified source confirms an imminent removal process, and the market remains anchored to the absence of formal catalysts [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.