Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed, with the current seven-day moving average hovering around 13 calls per day, far below the 60-ships threshold required to declare normalcy. Pre-conflict volumes typically ranged between 75 and 125 daily calls, meaning the strait needs roughly a fivefold increase in transit activity to resolve this market as "Yes" before the July 31 settlement window closes.

Historical data from similar disruptions shows that recovery to pre-crisis levels often takes months, not weeks, especially when geopolitical tensions persist. On Kalshi, odds that traffic will normalise before August plummeted from 66% to 21% in just two weeks, reflecting trader scepticism about a rapid rebound. The current 56% probability on Polymarket suggests a cautious but not impossible outlook, yet the mechanical gap between 13 and 60 calls remains the primary hurdle for conditional token holders.

Traders should monitor any official announcements regarding regional security de-escalation or port reopening schedules, as these are the only catalysts capable of triggering a sharp volume spike. Recent reporting from CNBC notes that prediction market participants now assign a 66% chance that normal flow will not return before January 2027, underscoring the dependency on external diplomatic developments rather than organic market recovery. On-chain, the contract trades in USDC on Polygon, where liquidity remains thin due to the high uncertainty surrounding the resolution source, IMF Portwatch.

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Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.