Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended after a brief reopening and daily transit calls hovering near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 ships. This ongoing crisis, driven by the Iran war and potential mine-laying, has halted the passage of approximately 20% of global oil and gas supply, forcing reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope and tripling tanker spot rates for Gulf-to-Asia routes[2][3].

Historically, similar chokepoint closures during regional conflicts have seen traffic recover only after explicit geopolitical de-escalation or enforced naval guarantees, yet the current 38% probability reflects the lack of progress in peace negotiations and President Trump’s declared naval blockade as a prerequisite for ceasefire[3]. With the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average sitting at just 13.14 as of 21 June, the gap to the 60-vessel threshold is substantial, suggesting that a return to normal by mid-July requires an unprecedented and rapid diplomatic breakthrough rather than gradual organic recovery[6].

Traders must monitor President Trump’s stated conditions for reopening the strait, any sudden ceasefire announcements with Tehran, and real-time data from IMF PortWatch for shifts in the 7-day average[3]. Recent reports indicate Tehran has implied mine-laying and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has released safe route maps, but actual vessel counts remain obscured by GPS spoofing, meaning conditional token prices on Polygon (settled in USDC) will likely react sharply only to verified, on-chain data confirming a sustained surge in arrivals[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.