Pronóstico: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The current crowd-implied probability for a leader being permanently removed from office before 2027 is 0% on Polymarket, effectively resolving the contract to "No" as the frontrunner, Netherlands PM Schoof, holds a 100% probability of staying in power [1]. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics where conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, have locked in the outcome that no incumbent among Trump, Putin, Xi, or Netanyahu faces a credible near-term threat of permanent removal [2]. The market treats the contract as effectively settled, with the only actionable angle being the monitoring of whether a formal payout is pending for the Orbán-related outcome that was already resolved by his April 2026 election defeat [2].

Historically, markets distinguish sharply between temporary suspensions, such as Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent impeachment which did not constitute permanent removal, and actual forced departures like termination or impeachment with removal [3]. Comparable cases show that leaders like Emmanuel Macron have explicitly ruled out resigning and confirmed they will stay until their term ends in 2027, reinforcing the 0% probability assigned to such scenarios [6]. The 0% pricing aligns with the strict resolution criteria that exclude caretaker roles or provisional transfers of power, ensuring that only permanent removal from office triggers a "Yes" outcome [3].

Traders should watch for official announcements of resignation, termination, or removal reported by at least one source agency, as these are the only catalysts that could alter the current consensus [3]. Scheduled departures due to election outcomes or temporary absences like medical leave do not satisfy the payout criterion, meaning the market will only resolve to "Yes" if a leader is forced out without prior announcement or through a definitive removal process [3]. With no credible threats to the power of the listed leaders, the focus remains on verifying whether any formal resolution payout is pending rather than anticipating new volatility [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.