Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet recent data shows shipping transits have collapsed by more than 95% due to regional conflict and security threats [7]. With the market currently pricing a 12% chance that any ship will transit the strait by June 30, 2026, traders are betting against a near-term recovery in maritime activity. This contract resolves on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning the payout hinges entirely on whether IMF Portwatch publishes a finalized daily transit call equal to or above the listed threshold before the settlement window closes [1].

Historically, the strait has seen over 30,000 vessels pass annually, with daily oil volumes exceeding 20 million barrels in 2022, but current conditions are starkly different [5]. The 12% probability reflects the severe disruption caused by ongoing attacks on commercial ships, GPS jamming, and AIS spoofing that force vessels to go dark [6]. Unlike past periods of normal traffic, the current environment lacks the stability required for consistent transit calls, making a rebound before June 30 highly improbable based on the latest IMF PortWatch trends [7].

Traders should monitor official announcements regarding regional security, scheduled peace talks, and any changes to naval patrols that could impact shipping safety. A recent update from IMF Portwatch through March 5th confirms no meaningful recovery in transit numbers, reinforcing the low probability of a sudden spike [10]. Additionally, watch for news on commercial shipping routes and potential diplomatic agreements that might ease tensions, as these are the primary catalysts for any shift in the market’s outlook [9]. Without such developments, the 12% YES price appears well-calibrated to the prevailing risks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.