Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The next YouTube video posted by MrBeast will determine the settlement of this market, specifically counting the views it accumulates in the first 24 hours after publication. If MrBeast fails to upload a video by 11:59 PM ET on 30 July 2026, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes a strike is unlikely or that the video will not be released within the timeframe.

Historically, MrBeast’s YouTube uploads consistently achieve massive first-day view counts, often exceeding 20 million views within hours. His recent video “Hi Me In 10 Years” garnered 2.45 million views in just 25 minutes, suggesting that even a modest release would likely surpass typical strike thresholds [6]. The 0% probability appears disconnected from this pattern, possibly reflecting uncertainty about the upload date rather than the video’s performance potential. Recent announcements confirm upcoming content is planned, though no specific release date has been disclosed [1].

Traders should monitor MrBeast’s social media channels and the MrBeast Wiki for scheduled video updates, as delays have occurred previously due to technical issues like CloudStrike [5]. The ongoing release of “Beast Games Season 2” on Prime Video, with new episodes weekly through 25 February, may influence his YouTube posting schedule [2]. Any official announcement of a YouTube upload date would be the primary catalyst for a shift in market probability, while continued silence increases the risk of the market resolving to the lowest bracket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.