Pronóstico: "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington, a historical epic about a young George Washington facing war and betrayal, is set to open domestically this Fourth of July weekend, with Friday’s preliminary gross already at an estimated $7.60 million from 2,700 locations[5]. On Polymarket, the contract currently prices at 0% YES for any specific opening-weekend bracket, reflecting extreme uncertainty or a market-wide consensus that the final 3-day figure will fall below the lowest defined threshold. The on-chain mechanics use USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining resolution once The Numbers publishes finalised 3-day totals for July 3–5, not studio estimates[3].

Historically, Angel Studios’ historical dramas have opened modestly but built strong domestic runs; early tracking for Young Washington suggests a $23M–$35M opening, with some analysts projecting up to $145M domestically[1]. Comparable 2026 July 4 releases like Minions & Monsters are forecast for $68M–$87M over five days, far exceeding Young Washington’s $23M+ range[3]. This disparity frames the 0% probability: traders may believe the film will not hit even the lowest bracket, or that the final 3-day total will be misaligned with bracket definitions.

Key catalysts include the official 3-day gross release from The Numbers on July 6, which will resolve the market, and any post-Friday adjustments from studio reports[4]. Traders should monitor whether the film’s performance holds against Minions & Monsters, which dominates the same weekend, and whether Angel Studios releases updated tracking or marketing pushes[7]. A recent Box Office Theory forecast confirms Young Washington’s $23M+ opening range, but notes the 5-day window may skew comparisons[3]. Final resolution depends strictly on non-estimated 3-day data, making timing and source accuracy critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.