Pronóstico: MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Nasim Nuñez currently leads the 2026 MLB regular season with 31 stolen bases, sitting just three ahead of Bobby Witt Jr., who has 28[1][4]. This tight margin frames the 8% crowd-implied probability for the market as a realistic assessment of a race that remains far from settled, with over 100 games still to play before the settlement window closes in September. Historical precedents show that stolen base leaders often emerge late in the season, as speed-based players capitalise on defensive lapses or specific pitching matchups, making early-season totals unreliable predictors of final outcomes[9].

Traders should monitor upcoming roster announcements and injury schedules, particularly for Nuñez and Witt Jr., as any absence could drastically alter the leaderboard trajectory. Recent projections from FantasyPros suggest Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson are poised to challenge for the top spot with 41 projected steals, indicating that the current leaders may face stiff competition from players with higher upside[6]. With Polymarket pricing this contract on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics allow for precise liquidity adjustments as new data emerges, ensuring prices reflect real-time shifts in player performance and availability[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: MLB: Stolen Bases Leader on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.