Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently choked by severe restrictions, with commercial vessels delayed or unable to transit the route, yet the market prices a return to normalcy by end-June at only 7% YES on Polymarket. This low probability reflects the on-chain reality that conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, are betting against the logistical timeline rather than the political headline. While President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran to lift the US naval blockade and reopen the strait for mine removal, the underlying event of 60 daily transit calls remains distant from the current 25 crossings recorded on 18 June[3][6].

Historical precedents frame this bleak outlook, as past declarations of openness, such as Iran’s April announcement that the strait was open to all shipping, failed to immediately restore pre-war traffic levels[3]. Experts from Hapag-Lloyd and The Conversation estimate that restoring a fully operational global shipping network takes a minimum of six weeks to nearly a year, with mine clearance and insurance issues potentially delaying normalcy by up to six months[4]. The 57% chance on Kalshi that traffic normalises before August suggests that end-June is an unrealistic target, given that supply chains follow a slower timeline than political agreements[1].

Traders must watch the signing of the interim agreement and the subsequent pace of mine clearance, which are the primary dependencies for any traffic surge[2]. Recent data shows tanker traffic resuming on 18 June following the deal, but congestion is likely to shift to transshipment ports like Jebel Ali and Singapore, which are already operating at high capacity[2][4]. Until the backlog clears and vessels can depart the Persian Gulf without delay, the threshold of 60 daily calls will not be met, keeping the 7% probability accurate for the current settlement window[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.