Pronóstico: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kharg Island remains firmly under Iranian control today, serving as the nation’s primary oil terminal and handling roughly 90% of its crude exports[1][2]. The market on Polymarket prices the chance of Iran losing control by March 2026 at 0% YES, reflecting the island’s heavy fortification and its status as Iran’s economic lifeline[5][6]. On-chain, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the 0% price signals that no on-chain liquidity expects a transfer of primary governmental or military authority to another state or force[3].

Historically, comparable cases like the 2026 US strike on Kharg in March 2026 show that bombardment or temporary disruption does not equate to loss of control[3]. The market definition requires another state or internationally backed authority to establish primary control, a threshold not met by isolated landings, naval presence, or sabotage[1][4]. Past conflicts in the Gulf demonstrate that even when infrastructure is damaged, Iran retains operational command unless a full occupation occurs, which aligns with the current 0% probability[2][7].

Traders should watch for official announcements regarding US or Israeli occupation plans, as well as schedules tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade dependencies[2]. A recent JP Morgan note highlights that seizing Kharg would stall Iran’s exports and halve output, potentially triggering regional attacks, yet no such occupation has been confirmed[2]. The settlement window ends 23:55 UTC on 31 March 2026, and any catalyst must show a clear transfer of primary control, not just temporary disruption[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.