Pronóstico: US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States has publicly announced a naval blockade on Iran, seizing three ships and intercepting 85 vessels since mid-April 2026, costing Iran approximately $500 million daily. However, CENTCOM confirmed on 18 June that this blockade was lifted following a deal to end the war, with enforcement efforts now ceased. This recent reversal frames the current 32% crowd-implied probability: traders are betting on a *new* announcement, not the continuation of the old one, given the official cessation of the previous operation.

Historically, such blockades have been temporary leverage tools, as seen when the 2026 blockade was removed after the Islamabad Talks failed and then reinstated only until a signed agreement. The current market reflects uncertainty over whether a fresh escalation will occur if negotiations stall, rather than assuming the old blockade persists. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens allow users to speculate on the binary outcome of a *new* official announcement before the 2026 settlement window closes.

Traders should monitor the 60-day negotiation phase and any statements from President Trump regarding "red lines," particularly the requirement for Iran to halt nuclear pursuits and open the Strait of Hormuz toll-free. Recent reports from Al Jazeera indicate that Iran has not yet met for negotiations until the US forces Israel to stop attacks on Lebanon, a key dependency for the deal. If talks in Doha on 30 June fail or if Iran refuses the terms, a new blockade announcement could trigger a "Yes" resolution, making these diplomatic schedules the primary catalysts for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.