Pronóstico: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

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Market context

A ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains officially in place, despite recent naval clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the market’s 3% YES probability reflects a narrow bet that President Trump will publicly revoke this agreement before June 2026. Historical precedents, such as the Twelve-Day War ceasefire that held until February 2026 despite initial violations, suggest that formal announcements of termination are rare and usually follow sustained escalation rather than isolated incidents. The current deal, validated by Iranian officials and mediated by Pakistan, includes provisions for reopening the Hormuz Strait and halting hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, which reinforces the stability of the existing commitment.

Traders should monitor scheduled diplomatic updates, particularly the official signing event in Switzerland on 19 June and any subsequent statements from Trump regarding ceasefire extensions or revocations. Recent reports indicate negotiations for a 60-day extension are underway, with Trump advising negotiators to “not rush” into a final deal, which may delay any definitive announcement of termination [5]. Key catalysts include US military responses to drone attacks, which Trump has previously cited as ceasefire violations, and official declarations from the US State Department or White House confirming the end of the agreement. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket, using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens, will price these developments instantly, reflecting real-time shifts in crowd-implied probability as news emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.