Pronóstico: Iran successfully targets shipping on 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iranian forces have recently fired on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the vessel and complicating diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire, while also seizing two other international ships in a direct escalation against maritime activities [3]. This current 4% crowd-implied probability for a kinetic strike on commercial shipping must be read against the historical precedent of the Tanker War (1981–1988), where Iran accounted for 168 attacks on merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, damaging over 30 million tons of cargo [1]. During that conflict, Iranian frigates like the Sahand and Sabalan were noted for brutal assaults on unarmed neutral shipping, proving that such aggression is not unprecedented when tensions with the US or regional powers spike [2].

Traders monitoring this Polymarket contract should watch for official announcements from the Islamic Republic of Iran explicitly claiming responsibility for maritime actions, as proxy attacks by Houthis or Hezbollah do not count toward resolution [4]. The settlement window ends on 9 July 2026, creating a dependency on the continuation of the US blockade on Iranian ports and the status of the ceasefire prolonged by President Trump [3]. Recent reports indicate Iranian personnel are directing Houthi attacks in Yemen, yet the market specifically requires a kinetic strike by Iranian forces themselves, making the distinction between direct action and proxy influence the critical catalyst for price movement [4]. On-chain mechanics using USDC on the Polygon network will reflect these shifts as conditional tokens adjust to the probability of a confirmed Iranian seizure or strike on a commercial ship.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.