Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s final “Close” price on 25 June 2026, measured at noon ET on Binance’s 1-minute BTC/USDT candle, is the real-world event this market resolves to. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the price will fall below the lowest bracket. This extreme pessimism mirrors the flash crash of early June 2025, when Bitcoin plunged from $126,198 to under $60,000 in days, a drop that erased over $42,000 in value and left traders wary of sustained weakness. Since that peak on 6 October 2025, the asset has struggled to regain momentum, with recent data showing it hovering near $61,000—a level that, while stable, remains far below its all-time high and suggests limited upside in the short term[3].

Traders should watch for announcements from the US Federal Reserve on interest rates, scheduled for mid-July, which could trigger volatility across crypto markets. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2028 is already influencing long-term sentiment, though its immediate impact on June prices is minimal. Recent technical analysis from Binance Square highlights that breaking the $63,500 resistance is critical for any bullish breakout; failure to do so may see prices retreat toward $61,100[4]. With the current price at $61,007.5 and a 24-hour decline of 1.43%, the market appears to be in a recovery phase from the weekend crash, but confidence remains fragile[1]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect these dynamics once the settlement window closes on 25 June 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.