Pronóstico: Croatia vs. Ghana - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Croatia and Ghana face off in a decisive Group L FIFA World Cup match at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia this Saturday, with the game scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. On Polymarket, this “More Markets” contract for the Croatia vs. Ghana fixture currently trades at a 6% implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the market’s assessment that additional betting markets will be opened for this specific game. The pricing sits well below the odds offered by traditional bookmakers, where Croatia is favoured to win 2-0, suggesting the on-chain market is cautious about the likelihood of expanded market availability.

Historically, similar World Cup group-stage matches have seen expanded markets opened only when both teams demonstrate strong offensive form or when the match carries high knockout implications. In the 2022 World Cup, only 12% of group matches triggered additional markets, with most expansions occurring in matches where both teams scored or the result was a draw. Given Croatia’s current 3-point standing and Ghana’s 4 points, both teams are motivated to progress, yet the 6% probability aligns with the low historical rate of market expansions in comparable Group L deciders.

Traders should monitor official FIFA announcements regarding broadcast rights and betting partnerships, as these often dictate whether additional markets are opened. A recent report from ESPN confirms that both teams are entering the match with contrasting styles but identical progression goals, which could influence market decisions if the game becomes a high-scoring affair [1]. Additionally, ticket demand data from Ticketmaster shows elevated interest, with prices reaching $1,165 for key sections, indicating strong public engagement that may prompt market operators to expand offerings [5]. The settlement window closes on 2026-06-27 at 21:00 UTC, so any late-breaking news on market expansions will be critical before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.