Pronóstico: Fed Decision in July?

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Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to decide on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at its July 28–29, 2026 meeting, with markets currently pricing a 78% chance of no change. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0.78 USDC per share on the Polygon network, reflecting strong conditional token demand for the “no change” outcome. The settlement resolves to the basis point change in the upper bound versus the prior level, rounded to the nearest 25bps if outside the listed options.

Historically, the Fed has held rates steady in 7 of the last 10 meetings when inflation remained above target but labor data showed mixed signals, as seen in March 2026 when the rate was anchored at 3.5%–3.75% with an 11–1 vote[4]. J.P. Morgan’s latest analysis continues to expect the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, with the first 25bps hike projected only in September 2027, despite growing market pricing for a 2026 hike due to inflationary pressures[3]. This divergence between analyst consensus and market-implied odds frames the current 78% probability as a cautious but not definitive bet.

Traders should monitor the June 2026 CPI release, the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) ahead of the July meeting, and any shifts in Fed Funds futures pricing on the CME FedWatch tool[8]. A recent CNBC report notes that unexpectedly high inflation and mixed labor indicators have already influenced the Fed’s stance, making the SEP a critical dependency for rate decisions[4]. Conditional token liquidity on Polymarket remains tight for the 25bps hike outcome, suggesting traders are watching for a surprise shift in inflation data before the meeting.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.