Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group D clash between Türkiye and the United States kicks off at 10:00 PM ET tonight at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, with both sides needing a result to secure their tournament ambitions. On Polymarket, this exact-score contract currently trades at a 5% implied probability for a specific outcome, reflecting the on-chain liquidity locked in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens. The market prices the USA as slight favourites, yet the low probability suggests the listed exact score is a niche event compared to the broader expectation of a tight, two-goal contest.

Historical World Cup Group stage matches between similarly ranked nations often produce narrow margins, with draws and one-goal victories dominating the data; for instance, recent Group F encounters saw a 60% frequency of scores ending in 1-1 or 2-1. Betting aggregates currently project a 1-2 or 2-1 USA win, with both teams scoring as the top selection, which frames the 5% probability as an outlier against the consensus of a high-scoring, competitive affair where the draw holds strong market interest[1][2].

Traders must monitor the final pre-match lineups and any late injury news, as both squads are confirmed without major absences heading into the Group D finale[8]. The referee, Mustapha Ghorbal, is known for a moderate disciplinary approach, which could influence the total goals if the match remains physical[3]. With kickoff imminent, the primary catalyst is the in-game flow, particularly whether Christian Pulisic, the top player pick, can exploit Türkiye’s defensive gaps to secure the predicted narrow victory[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.