Pronóstico: Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Market context

The Tunisia versus Netherlands Group F match kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on 25 June 2026 at Kansas City Stadium, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 9% on Polymarket. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a tight but plausible scenario where the Dutch top the group while Tunisia secures a narrow result. The 9% probability sits lower than typical exact-score markets for mismatched teams, suggesting traders are leaning toward a more common scoreline like 2-0 or 3-1 rather than a specific, less likely result.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages involving a strong UEFA team against an African side often settle below 15%, with the Netherlands’ previous World Cup encounters against non-European teams showing similar patterns. In 2006, the Netherlands beat Côte d’Ivoire 2-1, and in 2014, they defeated Australia 3-2, both outcomes carrying exact-score probabilities in the 8–12% range. These precedents frame the current 9% as consistent with past volatility, where a single defensive error or a late goal can shift the entire market.

Traders should monitor the final line-ups announced by both coaches, particularly whether Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman includes key attackers like Memphis Depay or Cody Gakpo, and if Tunisia’s Hervé Renard opts for a defensive setup. Recent reports from ESPN confirm both teams are in final preparation, with Tunisia aiming to revive their campaign after two draws [1]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts, especially regarding Tunisia’s midfield structure, could act as a catalyst for price movement before the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 25 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.