Pronóstico: LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

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Market context

T1 faces Team Liquid in the Upper Bracket Semifinal 2 of the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 28 June. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 84% YES for a T1 victory, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens. The crowd-implied probability sits notably below the 93.6% Strafe user vote favouring T1, suggesting a divergence between on-chain liquidity and community sentiment[1].

Historically, T1 has dominated this matchup, winning all four previous League of Legends encounters against Team Liquid with zero losses[1]. This perfect head-to-head record frames the current 84% price as conservative, especially when compared to Strafe’s overwhelming confidence. While past MSI tournaments have seen Korean teams like Gen.G challenge T1, the specific T1 versus Team Liquid dynamic remains one-sided, with T1 securing every prior win[3].

Traders should monitor the official match start time and any pre-game announcements regarding roster changes or delays, as the settlement window resolves to 50-50 if the match is not completed within seven days[4]. The tournament kicks off in Daejeon with this exact fixture, making schedule adherence critical[4]. No recent roster news has emerged, but the dependency on the match proceeding without cancellation is the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.