Pronóstico: Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump currently faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026, as priced on Polymarket today. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a market view that permanent removal is unlikely despite rising political tensions. The odds update in real-time based on actual trades, offering a continuously updated signal of what the crowd expects to happen regarding his tenure[4].

Historically, comparable cases suggest that impeachment without conviction remains the most probable outcome, mirroring patterns from his first term where conviction was blocked by Senate support[3]. While impeachment inquiries have been introduced by Democrats in the House, removal via the 25th Amendment or conviction remains improbable if Republicans retain Senate majorities[3]. Kalshi recently estimated the probability of impeachment and removal at nearly 28.7%, a sharp rise from April, yet this still falls short of guaranteeing actual removal from office[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming impeachment announcements, Senate voting schedules, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment, as these are the primary catalysts for market resolution. Recent reports indicate that impeachment probabilities have surged, but no official confirmation or verified source currently backs claims of imminent removal[1]. The settlement window ends on 31 December 2026, and only permanent removal qualifies; temporary invocations do not trigger a "Yes" resolution[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Trump out as President before 2027? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.