Pronóstico: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the US government issued an export-control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend global access to Claude Fable 5 and its underlying variant, Mythos 5, just three days after their public launch. The ban targets all foreign nationals, including non-US employees of Anthropic, and was triggered by a reported jailbreak circumventing safety filters and concerns over potential reverse-engineering by foreign adversaries. No official return date has been confirmed as of 17 June, though Anthropic states it is working to restore access as soon as possible, and White House AI adviser David Sacks has described the block as potentially temporary pending remediation of the safety issue[1][2][3].

Historically, similar export-control interventions in the tech sector have rarely resulted in permanent bans; instead, they often lead to temporary suspensions until compliance measures are implemented. For instance, previous US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China were lifted or modified once firms adjusted their safety protocols. In this case, the fastest path to restoration involves Anthropic patching the cited jailbreak and the US government lifting the directive, with a key date to watch being 22 June, when free access for Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise subscribers was originally promised[2][3].

Traders should monitor official announcements from Anthropic, updates from the US Commerce Department, and any statements from White House AI advisers regarding the export block. Recent reporting by Forbes confirms that the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dispatched the directive to Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei, and that other Claude models like Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku remain accessible[3]. On Polymarket, this contract currently prices at 0% YES, reflecting the immediate suspension and lack of a confirmed timeline, while conditional tokens on Polygon trade in USDC, with settlement tied to the 2026-07-02 deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.