Pronóstico: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Federal Reserve is currently holding rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, with nine of its members projecting at least one hike in 2026 rather than a cut, making the crowd-implied 80% probability of any rate cuts highly contentious against official projections[6]. This market, priced on Polymarket today via USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a speculative bet that the Fed will pivot to easing despite the prevailing hawkish dot plot and persistent inflationary pressures that have pushed swap markets to a 0% probability of cuts this year[3][6].

Historically, similar divergence between market pricing and Fed guidance has occurred, yet the current consensus from major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs explicitly forecasts no cuts in 2026, with the first move expected to be a hike in late 2027 or a cut only in mid-2027[4][5]. TD Securities, however, offers a contrasting view, expecting three cuts in March, June, and September 2026, which aligns more closely with the market’s bullish stance on easing[2]. This split highlights the fragility of the current 80% YES probability, as it relies on a scenario that contradicts the majority of institutional forecasts.

Traders must closely monitor the July 29 and September 16 FOMC meetings, where interest-rate markets are continuously repricing expectations for the fed funds rate path[1]. The key catalysts include upcoming CPI data releases and oil price movements, which directly influence the Fed’s clarity on cutting rates; recent commentary suggests the Fed may lack sufficient clarity to cut in January, with markets penciling in only a minimal 25 basis point move by March[2]. Any emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings would also count, adding volatility to the settlement outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.