Pronóstico: GPT-5.6 released on 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has already announced the GPT-5.6 family on 26 June 2026, yet a full public rollout remains deferred at the US government’s request, limiting initial access to a small group of vetted partners [3]. The market’s current 0% YES probability reflects this confirmed delay, not uncertainty about the model’s existence. Historically, similar frontier releases have followed a pattern of limited preview followed by broader availability within weeks; GPT-5.5 shipped three weeks before GPT-5.6 surfaced in Codex logs, and OpenAI stated GPT-5.6 would be generally available “in the coming weeks” [1][2][4]. However, markets have frequently misjudged release dates this year, and the government’s intervention adds a non-standard dependency that compresses or extends timelines unpredictably [2].

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: the official general-availability date (still unannounced), Codex backend updates where version bumps first appear, and any new system card or deployment safety hub entry expected to coincide with public launch [2][6]. Recent leaks suggest a price war with Anthropic may accelerate rollout, but OpenAI has not confirmed a public date, and the preview remains scoped to API and Codex for trusted organisations only [6][7]. Watch for announcements from OpenAI’s account representatives or shifts in Kalshi or Polymarket conditional token pricing, which may signal changing on-chain expectations as USDC liquidity flows into Polygon-based contracts [5]. The settlement window ends 31 July 2026, leaving just over four weeks for broader access to materialise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.